Gulf of Mexico Offshore Platform Risks
July 10th, 2009
Lloyd's Old Library, London
The past 5 years have seen increased interest in the frequency and intensity
of tropical windstorm events and in particular the impact of extreme waves
on offshore platforms from professionals in both the oil & gas and the
(re)insurance industries.
In the year 2004/5 a series of severe and exceptional events - Ivan, Katrina
and Rita - started a catalogue of insurance losses with Ike and Gustav
adding to the figures in 2008. Over 70% of the 4,000 GOM platforms were in
the path of hurricanes Rita and Katrina resulting in damage to over 50
platforms and over 500 pipeline segments and destruction of a further 115
platforms. Estimates for Ike revealed damage to 49 platforms and loss of
production on 21 others till the end of September.
Loss estimates for platform damage and loss of production for hurricanes
Rita and Katrina totalled over $17.5bn and over $7.5bn for Ike , with
reported claims revealing a higher than expected figure for recovery claims
such as removal-of-debris costs.
With the Lloyd's market insuring 60% of the world's upstream oil and gas
risks with an overall premium approaching $1.8 billion a major concern is
the difficulty of predicting event frequency and severity. Katrina was seen as
exceptional but Ike proved an even more devastating event and industry
professionals want to know if we have seen the worst and if we can narrow
the estimates in expected losses.
While the major modelling firms release models and underwriters battle to estimate and write the most suitable books of business a number of
questions haunt the industry. It is clear that there is interest in a more
complete understanding of the facts including the range of costs associated
with different claims elements (removal of wrecks, control of well costs, redrill
costs, etc); impact of wave activity and damage to platforms are
potentially the biggest concern – what made Ike so different and what can
we expect from the next big event?
This latest LRN event provides an opportunity for leading Offshore Platform
risk experts to share knowledge in this field with professionals in the
(re)insurance industry and explain the potential uses of the latest research
in wave modelling for their business in the immediate future and beyond.
Changing Climate Risks: Research Sharing
May 21st, 2009
Chartered Insurance Institute - Grand Hall
A collaborative event between
ClimateWise and the Lighthill Risk
Network to explore recent research
about changing climate risk and how this
affects the (re)insurance industry.
This event provides an opportunity for
leading climate risk experts to share
knowledge in this field with professionals
in the (re)insurance industry, policy
makers, academics and wider society
and explain the potential issues for their
business in the immediate future and
beyond.
Earthquake Risks in California: the science and the consequence
May 20th, 2009
Lloyd's Old Library, London
In the aftermath of the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy, maps of the tectonics of Italy and the impact of the
earthquake were posted around the foyers of USGS
offices in California. It has been more than 15 years
since there was a significant damaging earthquake
in the state, but the risk in California remains high
and there is a prospect of earthquakes 30 times
larger than the M6.2 at L’Aquila.
Meanwhile the USGS has recently updated its
perspective on California earthquake hazard,
reducing its recommended views on the strength of
ground shaking away from a future fault rupture.
These changes are now feeding through into
Catastrophe models where they are likely to lower
the modelled risk rates in the state. Yet at the same
time as the proportion of homeowners with
earthquake insurance in California continues to
shrink (down to a level lower than that in Turkey)
modellers are increasingly concerned about the
economic and insurance loss implications of all the
uninsured damage that will result from the next
major earthquake. (Or perhaps while the contracts
suggest that earthquake damage should not be
covered by a fire insurance policy – maybe the
political pressure on insurers will be so great as to
force them to pay claims – as also happened in the
1906 San Francisco earthquake?)
This latest seminar by the Lighthill Risk Network is
being organized to hear from leading experts on
some of the most critical elements affecting
California earthquake risk.
Bayesian Networks: Applications for the (re)Insurance industry
October 22nd, 2008
Presentation Rooms- Lloyd's, One Lime Street, London
Based on the famous formula for conditional probabilities created by the 18th century mathematician, the Reverend Thomas Bayes, such networks describe the relationship between causes and effects. As new information arises it can be fed back into the network to update other assumptions in a systematic way. In contrast to traditional, data driven, statistical approaches Bayesian Networks can combine historical data with expert judgement and explicitly allow for uncertainty in assumptions.
This half-day Lighthill Risk Network seminar provided an
opportunity for leading experts on terrorism to share
knowledge in this field with professionals in the
(re)insurance industry and explain the potential threats and
implications for insuring terrorism in the immediate future
and beyond.
Speaker presentations are available to members on the the member site on the events forum.
Terrorism: Exposure, Risk and Insurance -
September 29th, 2008
Watermen's Hall, 16 St. Mary's-at-Hill, London
In an increasingly interconnected and globalised world, the operations of commercial enterprises are increasingly intersecting with epicentres of geopolitical risk, increasing business exposure to the impact of terrorist violence.
The insurability of terrorism risk is a key question that has been circulating the worldwide insurance markets since the 9/11 attacks in the US. Many argue that the human-driven nature of terrorism makes it difficult to write in the traditional way due to the unreliability of predictability modelling when applied to such 'intelligent' threats.
This half-day Lighthill Risk Network seminar provided an opportunity for leading experts on terrorism to share knowledge in this field with professionals in the (re)insurance industry and explain the potential threats and implications for insuring terrorism in the immediate future and beyond. It was held at the Watermen’s Hall, London, on 29th September from 1pm to 4:30pm.
Speaker presentations are available to members on the the member site on the events forum.
Perspectives of Cyber Exposure and Risk Modelling for the (re)Insurance market
July 22nd, 2008
Watermen's Hall, London
This half-day workshop provided an opportunity for leading cyber risk experts to share knowledge in this field with professionals in the (re)insurance industry and explain the potential threats for their business in the immediate future and beyond.
Speaker presentations are available to members on the the member site on the events forum.
Changing Perspectives on Climate Change Risk
May 2nd, 2008
Lloyd's Old Library, London
Climate change, and its impact on the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes, presents one of the greatest immediate challenges to the insurance community. This seminar, organised by the Lighthill Risk Network, brought together leading climate and modelling experts to discuss the implications of climate change for the insurance and reinsurance industry.
Speaker presentations will be available to members on the events forum.
Risks and Opportunities of Nanotechnology
December 10th, 2007
Lloyd's Old Library, London
On December 10th the Lighthill Risk Network hosted a half-day seminar on nanotechnology examining the issues relating to human health, the environment and potential litigation arising from commercial practices or products.
Speaker presentations will be available to members on the events forum.
Catastrophe Modelling from a European Perspective
June 19 - 21, 2007
The Grange City Hotel,
London
The International Underwriting Association (IUA) and Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) present Catastrophe Modelling from a European Perspective. The conference exploresd which models are used, how they impact decision processes and how recent events might impact both primary and reinsurance markets in future years.
Dr Peter Taylor - Deputy Chairman of the Lighthill Risk Network - will opened the conference presenting a series of challenges to the current practices in loss modelling. Dr Taylor also posted these challenges on the Catastrophe Modelling Expert Panel on this site.
To read more about this seminar visit the International Underwriting Association (IUA) or Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) websites.
Insurance Impllications of London Flood
25th May, 2007
London Flood
On 25th May in the Old Library at Lloyd's, the Lighthill Risk Network brought together scientists, engineers and economists to brief us on the
insurance implications of London flood – a topic of vital interest to the
people and businesses in the capital and those who insure them. The
speakers being the leading authorities on their subjects, and were
specially selected to be relevant to the needs of the insurance world.
Speakers included Paul Sayers from HR Wallingford and Anne Van der Veen of the University of Twente.
The morning session, open to all, looked at the scientific background and
will be of particular interest to loss modellers and underwriters.
The lunchtime session offersed the chance to view and discuss some of the
software models for London flood with the experts.
The afternoon session, by invitation only, gave insurance executives a
summary of the threat and what it means for insurance.
Speaker presentations will be available to members on the events forum.
To see the schedule of the day click here.
Lighthill Risk Network Launches its services to business Subscribers
April 2007
The Lighthill Risk Network will launch its services to business subscribers on April 2nd, 2007. Usage subscribers will have access to the Lighthill Risk Network dynamic web platform which includes services such as Expert Panels and Data Catalogues. To read more about joining the Network click here.
Lighthill Risk Network Pricing Seminar
25th September, 2006
Lightill Risk Network Pricing Seminar - "Walk-away"
Co-sponsored by Lighthill Risk Network and the Quantitative Finance Network: See the Presentations.
"Modelling Epidemics", and "Controlling infectious disease outbreaks - can mathematicians help?"
14th
June, 2006
Mathematics of Infectious Diseases
Co-sponsored by LIMS and the Lighthill Risk Network.
El Nino: can forcasts reduce hazard risk?
11th May, 2006 El Nino
Co-sponsored by LR, LIMS and BHRC.
Coastal Flood Risk – does the New Orleans catastrophe hold lessons for London?
7th March, 2006
Hazards Forum Meeting - Co-sponsored by Lighthill Risk Networkand The Risk Group.
Are the Hurricane dice now loaded?
28th November, 2005
Co-sponsored by Lighthill Risk Networkand The Risk Group |
